In both MSM and social media, analysis and predictions are tainted by preferences and hopes. Pundits, influencers, and most of your friends on Facebook tend to promote expectations that match what would happen if they could choose the outcome.

It’s not a new issue. I recall hearing on NPR nearly two decades ago that a respected predictor of political or economic outcomes had explicitly stated in so many words that he based his prediction on analysis, not on his hopes. After the outcome went the other way, he publicly admitted that he had indeed predicted based on hope rather than on analysis. Yes, he admitted to lying about the basis of his prediction.



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